“USD”

Why Chocolate Got Pricier (and What Could Bring It Down)

Cocoa futures hit $12,261 per metric ton in April 2024 — the highest on record and nearly triple the price from two years earlier. While prices have pulled back to around $7,000–8,000 per ton by late 2024, chocolate bars at grocery stores still cost 30–40% more than they did in 2022. The question facing traders, food companies, and anyone with a sweet tooth is whether this represents a new structural floor or a commodity bubble ready to deflate.

Refining Margins and Metals Stocks: Under-the-Radar Levers

As global equity traders fixate on megacap tech and monetary policy, the industrial commodity markets are screaming red alerts. Crack spreads – refiners’ key profit metric – have surged 45% since January, demolishing seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, metals exchange inventories have collapsed to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, with copper stocks dropping a staggering 35% since November.

Auction Tails & Term Premium: What Changed This Week

The U.S. Treasury market just delivered its loudest warning signal since the 2023 regional banking crisis. Tuesday’s $42 billion 10-year note auction saw indirect bidders snap up 65.3% of the offering – a stark reversal from September’s tepid 59.8% take-up. When foreign central banks and institutional investors suddenly pile into duration at these levels, it pays to look under the hood.

Fed Cut: What the New Path Means for USD and Rates

The bond market’s reaction was swift and decisive: within minutes of the Fed’s latest dot plot release, traders had ripped up their 2025 playbooks. Two-year Treasury yields plunged 15 basis points to 4.92%, while overnight index swaps shifted to price nearly six quarter-point cuts by December 2025 – a far more aggressive path than the Fed’s own “three cuts” scenario suggests.