“Oil”

Auction Tails & Term Premium: What Changed This Week

Auction Tails & Term Premium: What Changed This Week

The U.S. Treasury market just delivered its loudest warning signal since the 2023 regional banking crisis. Tuesday’s $42 billion 10-year note auction saw indirect bidders snap up 65.3% of the offering – a stark reversal from September’s tepid 59.8% take-up. When foreign central banks and institutional investors suddenly pile into duration at these levels, it pays to look under the hood.

Oil Supply Fears and Market Dynamics

Oil Supply Fears and Market Dynamics

The energy market’s plumbing is cracking at precisely the wrong moment. With Brent crude surging past $92.50/barrel on Middle East tensions, trading volumes in major energy futures have plummeted 23% below their 5-year average. Market depth – the ability to execute large trades without moving prices – has deteriorated to levels not seen since the 2020 oil crash.