“Fed”

Fed Cut: What the New Path Means for USD and Rates

The bond market’s reaction was swift and decisive: within minutes of the Fed’s latest dot plot release, traders had ripped up their 2025 playbooks. Two-year Treasury yields plunged 15 basis points to 4.92%, while overnight index swaps shifted to price nearly six quarter-point cuts by December 2025 – a far more aggressive path than the Fed’s own “three cuts” scenario suggests.

Are Central Banks Near the End of Tightening?

The ground beneath global monetary policy is shifting, but not in the clean, synchronized way markets crave. With over 425 basis points of Fed tightening, 400bps from the ECB, and 515bps from the Bank of England since March 2022, we’re now seeing the first real cracks in the coordinated hawkish front.